Key Takeaways
- Analysts estimate EPS of -$0.41 vs. -$0.06 in Q1 FY 2021.
- Mobility segment revenue is expected to more than double year-over-year, the fastest pace of growth in at least four years.
- Revenue is expected to rise at an accelerating pace as Uber continues to recover from the pandemic.
Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) suffered billions of dollars in losses and a sharp revenue decline during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic as consumer demand plunged for its ride-hailing service. But the company has rebounded sharply in the past year due both to a recovery in ridership and its growing food delivery service. Uber plans to build on that momentum this year by sharply expanding beyond food into product delivery services for local retailers, making it a direct competitor to e-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN).
Investors will be watching closely to see how well Uber’s strategy is fueling its recovery when the company reports earnings for Q1 FY 2022 after market close on May 4. Analysts predict a widening in net loss per share year-over-year (YOY). Revenue is estimated to more than double, growing at its fastest pace in several years.
Investors will also focus on Uber’s mobility segment revenue. This is a key metric reflecting the performance of Uber’s ride-hailing business, which was most affected impacted by the pandemic. Analysts expect the sharpest increase in mobility revenue in at least 16 quarters.
Uber shares have significantly underperformed the wider market in the last year. In the past 12 months, Uber stock has failed to outperform the S&P 500 at any point. Instead, the shares have steadily drifted downward throughout that period, save for brief rallies between September and November 2021, and then December 2021 and January 2022. In both cases, the stock quickly gave up these gains. As of May 2, Uber shares have provided a 1-year trailing total return of -44.6%, compared to -0.9% for the S&P 500.
Source: TradingView.
Uber Earnings History
Uber’s earnings per share (EPS) history has been dominated by a long string of losses. The company posted losses per share in thirteen of at least the last 15 quarters. But the profit picture has been improving. Annual losses per share have generally narrowed even during the worst of the pandemic, from -$6.81 in FY 2019 to -$3.86 in FY 2020 and -$0.26 in FY 2021. The company posted its two quarterly positive earnings per share in the latest fiscal year, in the second and fourth quarters of FY 2021. Analysts expect losses per share in Q1 FY 2022 to widen YOY to -$0.41 compared to the same quarter a year earlier. Nonetheless, that loss would be the second-smallest in at least 16 quarters.
Uber’s revenue was dramatically affected by the pandemic, swinging from a 24.6% increase in FY 2019 to a 14.3% decline in FY 2020. But the company’s revenue has rebounded dramatically since then, rising 56.7% in FY 2021. The rebound started in Q2 FY 2021, when revenue more than doubled YOY. It increased by 72.2% and 82.6% YOY for Q3 and Q4 FY 2021, respectively. Now, analysts expect Uber’s revenue to once again more than double YOY in Q1 FY 2022, as it climbs at the fastest quarterly pace in at least four years.
| Uber Key Stats | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate for Q1 FY 2022 | Q1 FY 2021 | Q1 FY 2020 | |
| Earnings Per Share ($) | -0.41 | -0.06 | -1.71 |
| Revenue ($B) | 6.1 | 2.9 | 3.2 |
| Mobility Segment Revenue ($B) | 2.2 | 0.9 | 2.5 |
Source: Visible Alpha
The Key Metric
As mentioned above, investors will also be focused on Uber’s mobility segment revenue. The company’s mobility segment includes all ride-hailing products and services, as well as Uber’s financial partnerships offerings. This segment is distinct from Uber’s delivery and freight businesses. This metric is particularly important at this point because, as the economy has opened up, customers are increasingly willing to use ride-hailing services, boosting Uber’s mobility business. At the same time, the surging gasoline prices could rein in Uber’s growth by hurting both demand and also the availability of drivers. In March, the company began imposing a temporary surcharge on prices paid by U.S. customers to cushion the blow for Uber drivers faced with paying for soaring costs at the pump.
Analysts are predicting that customer eagerness to hail rides will be strong in Q1 FY 2022. Uber’s mobility revenue is expected to climb 156.2% YOY to $2.2 billion. This would mark the single largest quarterly YOY growth in this category in at least four years and dramatically higher than the lowest point during the pandemic when Uber reported. $0.8 billion in revenue in Q2 2020. However, revenue of $2.2 billion in Q1 of this year would still be shy of mobility revenue figures for both Q1 FY 2019 and Q1 FY 2020, suggesting that Uber’s ride-hailing business has yet to fully recover.
